Case Studies - Forecasting
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Case Study 1: Driving revenues through strategy – The $1Bn Impact
Challenge:
A franchise of a major biotech company consisting of 2 oncology products, a short- and a long-acting version was facing competition of biosimilars. The forecast was predicted to go from $650M down to $325M in 4 years.
Solution:
Our strategic tool allowed us to identify not only a defense strategy but growth opportunities regarding length of treatment and physician segmentation / targeting which led to an increase of revenues shy of $1B 4 yrs later with 4 biosimilars on the market.
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Case Study 2: De-risking go-to-market strategy with analysis
Challenge:
A US start-up biotech was setting up their Int’l HQ in Europe. The go-to market strategy was forecasting $280M in revenues with $200M in operating cost in the launch year.
Solution:
Our Advanced Intelligence Model
opportunity by physician type & setting and patient type leading to a de-risked go-to market strategy with $35M of operating cost in the launch year, a saving of $165M, delivering the same revenue of $280M.
helped to re-assess the market
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Case Study 3: Precision through modeling techniques
Challenge:
Orphan drugs are inherently difficult to forecast. In this case, sales of a major biotech player of an orphan drug was 73% below its forecast in the US market in its 1st year post launch.
Solution:
Using reverse modeling, we were able to deliver a forecast for EU27 that was 4% below actuals (the 4% was driven by a 1-month earlier launch in Spain than predicted).
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Case Study 4: Precision through breaking silos
Challenge:
Sales of a targeted therapy in oncology of a major biotech company was 100% above its forecast in year 1 post launch in EU24. We were tasked to build a new model to better predict the revenue forecasts from year 2 onwards.
Solution:
Breaking down silos, we were able to build a model forecasting revenues within 1% of actuals, a single year impact of $180M.
